The common front page definition of an economic recession is two successive calendar quarters of negative economic change. The generally accepted professional definition of a recession (and recovery) is set by the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and, of course, is more scholarly and comprehensive requiring and assessment of the performance of the broader economy and assessment by a committee under the auspices of the NBER. The following is a link to the NBER’s Q&A about the process and the associated spreadsheet lists the structural details of all US cycles. https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions

In addition to the NBER’s structure of the economic cycle, I have found it useful to add an additional component. I split the NBER Expansion into two components:

  1. the Recovery from trough to the previous peak, recovering to the level of economic activity when the recession struck.
  2. the return to economic growth beyond the previous peak.

The above components can be modified by referencing an extension of the simple trend instead of using the statics “previous peak” which discounts the dynamic nature the economy.

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wisdom for this month

James Graham on the lingering and as yet unresolved effect of the 2008 global Financial Crisis (Reuters digital July 17, 2025)

…We’d been promised that this was the end of history and that everything was inevitably going to be a linear advancement towards progress and improvement. … I had no idea the longer, bigger crises and anger that was going to be coming down the line.