This is a fun posting.

Banning exports of strategic knowledge and their applications is a common feature of modern international competition between countries. Undoubtably the ban slows down the acquisition and application of the new knowledge in the banned country but the ban creates incentives to develop near-substitutes using domestic knowledge or invent technological breakthroughs. An early example of the latter effect comes from the Hellenist period.

In the Hellenist period, libraries were the great stores of acquired knowledge. The acquired knowledge data base was stored on papyrus of which Egypt was a major global supplier. Egypt’s principle library was in Alexandria, the famous Library of Alexandria. A major competitor was the Library of Pergamon in present day Turkey. Finally the competition reached the level where Egypt banned the export of papyrus in the expectation that it would impede the expansion of the Library of Pergamon. In reaction Pergamon resurrected and improved on the use of parchment to replace papyrus. And it was successful.

The point is that a strategic reaction to a strategic action can lead to unexpected and long-term reversals of fortune. Advancing to the modern world there are strong indications that, say China, may be developing powerful strategic responses to the multitude of strategic export restrictions imposed on the country. China seems to have developed a deep and strong scientific culture – their space program, EV technology, etc. attest to their success.

Russia, on the other hand, has found alternative foreign based solutions whether that be shifting their oil market towards Asia (China and India), or simply taking over western businesses that left their retail shells in Russia. The Russian reaction was not strategic it was simply tactical to minimize the immediate impact of the “bans”.

So, to conclude, strategic export bans can lead to

a. strategic responses with indeterminable long-term effects that can affect the balance of power, or

b. simple tactical responses.

And these are very old lessons to be learned and re-learned again and again.

From ChaTGPT:

Competition between the Libraries of Alexandria and Pergamon was a significant aspect of intellectual and cultural rivalry in the Hellenistic period. Both libraries were renowned centers of learning in the ancient world, attracting scholars, researchers, and intellectuals from various regions.

The Library of Alexandria, founded in the 3rd century BCE in Alexandria, Egypt, under the patronage of the Ptolemaic dynasty, was one of the most famous libraries of antiquity. It aimed to collect all the knowledge of the world and housed a vast collection of scrolls and texts from diverse fields such as science, philosophy, literature, and history.

On the other hand, the Library of Pergamon, located in the ancient city of Pergamon (modern-day Bergama in Turkey), emerged as a rival to the Library of Alexandria during the Hellenistic period. It was established by the Attalid dynasty, particularly by King Eumenes II in the 2nd century BCE. The Library of Pergamon was renowned for its focus on parchment (vellum) scrolls, an alternative to the traditional papyrus scrolls used in Alexandria.

The rivalry between these two libraries intensified when Ptolemy V of Egypt imposed a ban on the export of papyrus to Pergamon in the 2nd century BCE. Papyrus was the primary writing material used in the ancient Mediterranean world, and its scarcity would have severely impacted the ability of the Library of Pergamon to acquire new texts. In response to this ban, the scholars at Pergamon developed parchment, made from animal skin, as an alternative writing material. This innovation allowed Pergamon to continue expanding its collection and furthering scholarly pursuits, ultimately rivaling the prominence of the Library of Alexandria.