Canada has explored a wide array of trade partnerships over the past generation. Some agreements took effect, others remain under negotiation and a few never materialized. This post estimates the potential scale of each initiative by comparing average trade flows in the early NAFTA era (1988–1992) with those in the USMCA era (2020–2024).
An earlier article examined Canada’s active international trade agreements. Here, we broaden the view to include “notional” deals—those proposed but not concluded, or reworked over time. By tracking annual trade statistics for each grouping from 1988 to 2024, we capture how negotiations, expansions and overhauls reshaped Canada’s trade landscape.
Data and Methodology
Statistics Canada recently published comprehensive trade data for both realized and proposed groupings. We calculate the percentage change in imports, exports and trade balance by comparing the five-year averages of 1988–1992 with those of 2020–2024.
Transformations such as the original 1988 Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement, the 1992 expansion to NAFTA (adding Mexico), and the 2020 shift to USMCA are all reflected in this analysis.
Summary Statistics
| Trade Agreement | Imports Change (%) | Exports Change (%) | Balance Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASEAN FTA Discussions | 13.7 | 4.5 | 49.0 |
| Caribbean Community Negotiations | 1.7 | 2.3 | 22.1 |
| Chile FTA | 10.6 | 5.6 | 37.7 |
| China FTA Discussions | 55.3 | 13.6 | –158.5 |
| Colombia FTA | 8.7 | 4.1 | –4.5 |
| Costa Rica FTA | 7.5 | 8.6 | 6.9 |
| Dominican Republic FTA Negotiations | 10.2 | 3.8 | –6.1 |
| European Free Trade Association FTA | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| European Union (CETA) | 4.2 | 2.2 | 11.0 |
| Guatemala, Nicaragua & El Salvador FTA Negotiations | 9.7 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Honduras FTA | 22.7 | 2.5 | 73.3 |
| India Comprehensive EPA Negotiations | 28.7 | 11.2 | –19.3 |
| Israel FTA | 9.6 | 2.3 | –119.1 |
| Japan EPA Negotiations | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Jordan FTA | 398.7 | 8.5 | –6.7 |
| Korea FTA | 4.8 | 3.4 | 7.9 |
| Mercosur FTA Negotiations | 8.1 | 4.4 | 13.9 |
| Morocco FTA Negotiations | 11.8 | 2.6 | –1.0 |
| Pacific Alliance FTA Negotiations | 18.6 | 9.8 | 25.5 |
| Panama FTA | 2.7 | 16.1 | 41.4 |
| Peru FTA | 47.2 | 17.3 | 143.0 |
| Philippines FTA Discussions | 6.9 | 5.3 | 21.0 |
| Singapore FTA Negotiations | 1.3 | 3.7 | –2.4 |
| Thailand FTA Discussions | 9.2 | 1.8 | 40.0 |
| Türkiye FTA Discussions | 36.1 | 7.2 | –21.3 |
| U.S. FTAs and Successors | 2.8 | 3.8 | 8.3 |
| United Kingdom Trade Continuity Agreement (TCA) | 1.0 | 5.1 | –11.9 |
| United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (CUSMA) | 3.1 | 3.9 | 7.3 |
| Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) | 5.0 | 2.1 | 13.7 |
| NAFTA (superseded) | 3.1 | 3.9 | 7.3 |
| Ukraine FTA | — | — | — |
Key Takeaways
- China FTA discussions show massive import growth but a widening trade deficit.
- The Jordan FTA, though small in export gains, saw an extraordinary jump in imports.
- Peru’s FTA delivered the strongest balance improvement, driven by booming exports.
- Several negotiations (ASEAN, Pacific Alliance, Colombia) have meaningfully boosted both imports and exports.
LG Economic Insights 
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