On April 2, 2025, the United States shook the global trade system, swapping long-standing, rules-based free trade for tariffs. Canada responded with a familiar pledge: diversify our trade partners, reduce reliance on the U.S., and look outward. But history suggests this is easier said than done.

Canada has known for decades that putting too many eggs in one basket—our U.S. neighbour—is risky. Since the 1950s, governments have promised trade diversification, yet real progress has been minimal. After Nixon slapped a 10 percent surcharge on Canadian imports, Ottawa unveiled the “Third Option” policy in 1975. A decade later, it signed NAFTA, deepening U.S. integration instead. Fast forward to 2018: Canada announced another strategy to boost overseas exports by 50 percent. Reality check? That same year, 74 percent of our merchandise exports still went to the U.S.—and by 2024, it had climbed to 76 percent.

Why does Canada keep missing the mark? The private sector follows incentives—and infrastructure is the linchpin of those incentives. Canada has historically invested in the networks that could help businesses reach global markets: the national railways, the Trans-Canada Highway, airports and the national airline system, and the St. Lawrence Seaway. These were tools for businesses to thrive beyond the U.S., yet Canada also doubled down on integration with its southern neighbour. From the 1965 Auto Pact to the 1987 Free Trade Agreement and the 2020 Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, policies consistently nudged Canadian trade closer to the U.S. rather than further afield.

Today, Canada faces a familiar challenge. Non-U.S. markets account for just 24 percent of our merchandise exports. Shifting the needle won’t happen by wishful thinking—it will take major public investment in infrastructure to open new trade routes and markets.

So here’s the question: will Canada finally commit to the investments needed to make diversification real, or will we watch another two generations repeat the same story—good intentions, little change, and continued reliance on our southern neighbour? Only time will tell.